Tuesday, June 4, 2013

San Jose in the 1970s

San Jose looked quite a bit different in the 1970s than it does today!  I came across an interesting website that shows dozens of interesting "then and now" pictures from 1975 and 2006.

My favorite is the fifth from the bottom.  Today, San Jose State University has a beautiful campus and I always enjoy being on it.  However in 1975 there were roads running through what are now the peaceful walkways that we enjoy today.

To see how San Francisco looked back then, I've watched some episodes of the 1970s police show, The Streets of San Francisco.  Check out this clip for a great car chase scene from that series.  They don't make car chase scenes like they used to!


Friday, May 24, 2013

Municipal Bankruptcies in California

At the end of last month, Marc Joffe and I submitted a report titled "Assessing Municipal Bond Default Probabilities" to our sponsors for peer-review.  We are currently addressing some criticisms received from referees.  However we plan to finish these revisions by June 30th, and will update the link then.  In the meantime, we'd welcome further comments on our paper.

After submitting the draft report last month, I turned my attention to other things.  Work has been hectic for me since then, with the end of the semester, graduation, and numerous other demands on my time, so that I haven't been able to keep up with some of the media attention this report has already received, until now.

Even though the report is still a work in progress, several reporters have picked up on it, including this one from the Bond Buyer. My co-author was quoted in stories by FT.com and in a USAToday.com op-edThis Bloomberg.com story discusses our report, and so did this Reuter's MuniLand blog post.

A recent USA Today story explores the same question we do, and (I believe) refers to our study but does not mention it by name.  Interestingly, USA Today provides a ranking of cities likely to default, though unlike ours, their methodology is not transparent (i.e. I can only guess at how they came up with their list.)

I am very happy to have the chance to continue to work with Marc Joffe on this.  Currently, his company's webpage is hosting a site that makes the data we gathered for this study easily accessible to the general public.  The data we gathered for this study is also available as an Excel file.  This data was gathered by downloading the Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports from individual city's webpages, and then entering the data into spreadsheet format.  Thus, a major contribution of our study is making this data available.  As you can see from reading through my previous blog posts, I am a big believer in making data accessible and open source production processes, and it is great to team up with someone who shares these beliefs.

Now that my attention is back on this project, I plan to blog more about this project in the days and weeks ahead.  There is lots more work to do in this area and I hope to be able to dedicate more time to exploring the fascinating and important issues surrounding municipal bankruptcy.
Please feel free to contact me if you have any questions and I will do my best to respond!

Air Pollution in Indian Cities

I recently finished a draft of a paper I've been working on for a while, titled, "The Effect of Social and Economic Development on Air Pollution in Indian Cities."  I'll be soliciting feedback on it over the next few weeks in preparation for submission to an academic journal.

Recently I became aware of two sources of estimates for average income at the local level which I use in the study.  There are no city-level average income estimates available for Indian cities, but if you are looking for district-level average income estimates for Indian cities, I suggest these sources you can find here and here.

Here is the abstract:




This paper presents new estimates of air pollution production functions using data from Indian cities.  The resulting estimates enable tests of various hypotheses concerning the effect of income, literacy, population and other variables on four measures of air pollution: sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and two measures of particulate matter.  Controlling for multiple factors, we find of a negative relationship between income and particulate matter, though the precise form of the relationship depends on how income is measured.  We find  little relationship between income and sulfur dioxide emissions, and a positive relationship between income and nitrogen dioxide emissions.  We find a weakly non-linear relationship between literacy and three of four air pollution measures, whereby pollution levels at first increase and eventually decrease with rising literacy.  Finally, we briefly consider the effect of industry type on the four pollution measures.
 

Please send me an email if you have any comments or questions on this paper!

Tuesday, May 7, 2013

Central Business District Geocodes

Urban researchers continue to rely on a 1982 study by the U.S. Census Bureau to determine the location of the Central Business Districts (CBDs) of U.S. cities.  (See for example page 3 of this study.)  My guess is the continued reliance on these old data is largely due to the lack of better alternatives.

As one who generally believes that "information wants to be free," I am posting here geocodes for the CBDs for 366 metropolitan statistical areas.   This file includes the list of MSAs and its central county and principle city, along with FIPS codes for each of these, and finally the latitude and longitude for the CBD of the principle city.

All I ask in return is that if you use these data in your research, please cite the following report: 
Holian, Matthew J., and Matthew E. Kahn.  2012. The Impact of Center City Economic and Cultural Vibrancy on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation. San Jose, CA: MTI Publications. 
If you have any comments on these data, please leave them here or email me.  Here are details on how the locations were determined: 

The location of each MSA’s CBD was obtained by recording the geocode returned when entering the central city name in Google Earth. Although this method of identifying CBDs places considerable trust in Google’s potentially ad hoc definitions of central places, we found them to be quite reasonable in all cases—for example, this procedure identifies the CBD as Broadway and Chambers for New York; First and Main for Los Angeles; Jackson and Federal for Chicago; and Market and Van Ness for San Francisco. Even if these locations were off by up to a mile or so, further refinements would not improve much, as we define “downtown” as the area within five miles of the CBD. (This quote was taken from Holian and Kahn, 2011, p. 24).

In our report we also noted that MSA definitions change roughly annually. In our report, we used the 2006 definitions and the principle cities identified by the Census. U.S. Census Bureau, “Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas,” http://www.census.gov/population/www/metroareas/metrodef.html (Accessed August 18, 2011).



Sunday, April 28, 2013

Building Boom in San Francisco



SF's building boom brings change to city.”  This is the title of the front-page article from today’s San Francisco Chronicle. They also have a nice map of all the construction projects underway. 

The article asked an interesting question. "What spurred this frenzied burst of activity in a notoriously antidevelopment city?"  Here were the answers they provided:

Much of the current flurry is catch-up after a long dormancy. New construction almost ground to a halt during the economic downturn...Last year, as the tech-fueled local economy rebounded and the national picture brightened, the money spigot turned back on. "Shovel ready" projects broke ground virtually overnight...And San Francisco's housing fundamentals - surging demand along with soaring rents and home prices - are stronger than ever.

Surely these factors were important.  But a bigger-picture factor at play that the article hardly mentioned, but that I think is critical, is changing attitudes towards building, both among the planning community and the general public. 

I have some limited evidence to support my claim.  In the 1970s, San Franciscians voted on three ballot measures that aimed to restrict building height and supply more generally.  All three were unsuccessful, but in 1986, Prop M passed and this imposed restrictions that are still in effect.  This coincides with the rose of anti-high rise development sentiments.

In 2000, voters rejected Prop L which would have further restricted building.   One way to interpret this is that 1986 was the peak of anti-high rise preferences.

Thus I believe that changing preferences towards high-rise construction have a lot to do with all the new projects we're seeing today.  In the weeks ahead, Kevin Chiu and I will release a working paper that deals precisely with these issues.  Stay tuned!


Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Streets, Malls and Department Stores

Normally, I run from PBS dramas.  However today (by way of Lynne Kiesling) I heard about a new show titled “Mr.Selfridge” that sounds quite interesting.  The show is about American department store entrepreneur Harry Selfridge, former partner in Marshall Fields, who is building a new department store in London.

Lynne pointed her readers to an article by Virginia Postrel titled, "How Mr. Selfridge Created the Modern Economy".  Commenting on the significance of the department store concept, Postrel writes:
...like railroads and telegraphs, the department stores of the late 19th and early 20th century were socially and economically transformative institutions. They pioneered innovations ranging from inventory control and installment credit to ventilation systems, electric lighting and steel construction, along with new merchandising and advertising techniques. They brought together goods from all over the world and lit up city streets with their window displays. They significantly changed the role of women, giving them new career opportunities and respectable places to meet in public. They popularized bicycles, cosmetics, ready-to-wear clothing and electrical appliances...
To this list of impressive contributions, I will add one more important institution that allegedly developed in department stores--the posted price.  Prior to this, haggling was a common practice in retailing. 

Postrel's piece reminded me of an article I read in grad school by Vernon Smith and co-authors titled, "A Comparison of Posted-Offer and Double-Auction Pricing Institutions."  In the intro to that article those authors write: 

The institution of posted-offer pricing is defined...as a market mechanism in which each seller "posts" a selling price at the beginning of each trading period....Although [posted-offer pricing] dominates almost all retail markets in the United States, it is a comparatively new pricing mechanism whose ascendency is associated with the retail innovations of R.H. Macy and F.W. Woolworth in the last half of the nineteenth century.  These new mass retailers replaced the small owner-operated general store, with an organization which separated the clerical, management, and ownership functions.  Since sales were made by large numbers of clerks, the take-it-or-leave-it posted price replaced the "haggling" that had characterized pricing in the general store (Marburg (1951), p. 527) 
 Thus the concept of the department store was truly revolutionary and I am hoping that this PBS show lives up to the hype!

Tonight in my Industrial Organization class we're moving into a new topic, "spatial organization."  My lecture builds off of Chapter 1 from Jan Brueckner's new Urban Economics text, which highlights how the economic explanation for cities lies in decisions made by firms.  Thus there is a natural connection between industrial and urban economics and tonight I will argue that there are a lot of interesting questions to explore at the intersection of these two sub-disciplines.  These were two of the fields I studied as a graduate student and lately my interest in working at this intersection has become reinvigorated.  For tonight, I will even pull out another paper from my graduate school days which is a great example of a study at the intersection of industrial and urban economics.  In "Streets, Malls, and Supermarkets," Howard Smith and Donald Hay develop a theoretical model of competition among these three types of shopping centers.  It would be very interesting to develop an empirical study along these lines.  I'm hoping one of my students will come up with a good idea for how to do it!


Select references (to make people's lives easier!):


Ketcham, Jon, Vernon Smith and Arlignton Williams, "A Comparison of Posted-Offer and Double-Auction Pricing Institutions" in Papers in Experimental Economics by Vernon L. Smith, Cambridge University Press, Nov 29, 1991

Marburg, T. (1951), "Domestic Trade and Marketing", Chapter 26 in H.Williamson (ed.) Growth of the American Economy (Englewood Cliffs: Prentic-Hall, Inc.) 511-533.





Monday, April 15, 2013

Book Review: Madmen, Intellectuals and Academic Scribblers



Earlier this month in our Friday Afternoon Workshop, we discussed the new book by economists Wayne Leighton and Ed Lopez, Madmen, Intellectuals and AcademicScribblers: the Economic Engine of Political Change.  The Workshop was well attended by our faculty and students, I imagine because not only is the book an engaging read, but the book was written while Lopez was on the faculty with us at SJSU.

The authors present a framework for understanding political change, drawing especially on their deep knowledge of public choice theory.  But they are well-read students in the history of thought more broadly and their framework draws upon an impressive array of ideas, old and new.  

The central characters in their framework are those mentioned in their title.  The nonstandard names they have chosen for these characters were taken from quotes from two economists who are about as far away from each other philosophically as possible.  From John Maynard Keynes we get “Madmen” and “academic scribblers”, and from Freidrich August von Hayek we get “intellectuals.”  It is important to grasp that in this framework, academics are not the same as intellectuals!  Here is the famous original quote from Keynes:

The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back. I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas.

John Maynard Keynes, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money (1935), p. 383 emphasis added.

And from Hayek:

The term "intellectuals"...does not at once convey a true picture of the large class to which we refer… The typical intellectual … need not possess special knowledge of anything in particular, nor need he even be particularly intelligent, to perform his role as intermediary in the spreading of ideas. 

Freidrich August von Hayek, “The Intellectuals and Socialism,” University of Chicago Law Review (1949)

An oversimplification of their framework, which diminishes the careful thought the authors put into developing it, but that does give a reader the flavor of what the book is about, is to say that academic scribblers (scholars like Keynes and Hayek) come up with ideas, which are in turn popularized by intellectuals (i.e. journalists, teachers, etc.) and finally madmen in authority (politicians) act when the ideas have caught on among the public.  However this is a vast simplification of their framework, and the whole second half of the book is spent describing the inner-workings of the top-down depiction of the process I outline above, and they also emphasize the bottom-up influence ideas can have on the process of political change, again, drawing on an impressive array of ideas both old and new. 

The first half of the book is a crash course in the history of political thought, economic theory, and public choice theory.  The second half builds up the framework and applies it to four examples of political change, including airline deregulation and welfare reform.  I would recommend the whole book, but someone short on time who is familiar with the history of economic thought could skip ahead and read chapter 5 directly after the introduction.

The book is a contribution to the scholarly literature, and arguably its main contribution is to create a framework with a central role for what they term “political entrepreneurs.”  These are individuals whose actions are central for bringing about policy change.   Other people have written about how changing ideas and attitudes were critical precursors to the deregulation movement of the 1970s and 80s, (for example, Richard H.K. Vietor’s Contrived Competition: Regulation and Deregulation in America.)  However focusing only on the role of ideas neglects the critical role played by certain individuals (like Alfred Kahn in the case of airline deregulation.)

I don’t want to give the impression that the book is not a fun to read just because it makes a contribution to the scholarly literature, because in addition to applying and organizing some very deep ideas, this book is also packed full of interesting anecdotes and neat tidbits; students, professional economists and educated lay audiences will all learn new things and will remain entertained throughout.  Some of the fun facts I took away from this book include that Larry Summers, former top advisor to President Obama, is Paul Samuelson’s (the second economist to win the Nobel prize in economics) nephew.  Nor did I know that Ronald Coase got the idea to auction off rights from a University of Chicago law school student.  The name of the boat that stranded the castaways in the 1960s television sitcom Gilligan’s Island, the S.S. Minnow, was chosen because the then FCC chairman Newt Minow had spoken harshly about the television industry.  And on and on.

Having just finished reading this book before giving a lecture on regulation in my Industrial Organization class, my performance noticeably improved.  I liberally ripped-off lines I had gotten from the book.  I plan to continue to do this in my teaching!  

In order to facilitate conversation in our workshop, I came up with questions for each of the book’s seven chapters.  I will make them available here so that others reading this book, or assigning it to their students, may benefit.  (Take note, allocation economists, I am providing free public goods! ; )

For more information about the book, I suggest visiting the publisher’s website (http://www.sup.org/book.cgi?id=21703) or the author’s blog (http://politicalentrepreneurs.com/).